Record Budget Deficit: D7 billion Recorded in First Nine Months of 2025

Finance Minister Keita at the 2026 Budget Speech Press Conference in Parliament © The Gambia National Assembly

By Yusef Taylor, @FlexDan_YT

Every year Parliament approves a balanced budget showing that all the expenditures will be financed from revenues, including loans and grants. However, our research shows that revenues rarely match up to expenditures, leaving a budget deficit for five out of the eight years of President Adama Barrow’s reign. This year, this might get even worse.

During the 2026 Budget Speech, Finance Minister Seedy Keita announced that “the overall deficit, including grants, amounted to D7 billion during the first nine months of 2025.” However, parliamentarians had approved a budget deficit of D2.6 billion, which is almost a third of the entire year’s projected budget deficit.

With only weeks remaining to the end of 2025, our budget research reveals that the actual budget deficit of D7 billion is a record high, well above the second-highest actual budget deficit of D5.3 billion recorded for 2017, after President Adama Barrow’s first year in office.

Speaking to Askanwi Media, Mr. Lamin Dibba of the Center for Budget and Macroeconomic Transparency (CBMT) recalled that “the approved total deficit for 2025 was D2.65 billion. The actual deficit going all the way to D7 billion, a D4.35 billion difference, is alarming. If actual expenditure for the remaining 3 months stays above actual funds realised during the period, the huge disparity between approved deficit and actual deficit will only reveal the government's limited foresight.”

Actual vs Approved Budget Deficit (2017 to 2024) Askanwi Media after MoFEA

Over D14.1 Billion Actual Budget Deficit in Eight Years

The budget always shows a budget deficit with a financing plan highlighting how the deficit will be funded through Domestic and Foreign Borrowing.

However, our budget research shows that the financing plan rarely materialises, with only three years (from 2021 to 2023) showing an actual budget surplus totalling D2.8 billion. The remaining five years (2017 to 2020 and 2024) have accumulated a total actual budget deficit of D16.6 billion.

After eight years in office, the actual budget deficit from 2017 to 2024 totalled D14.1 billion. For this same period, our research shows that parliamentarians approved revenues and expenditures totalling a budget deficit of D336 million. This means that the actual budget deficit is 42 times the approved budget deficit for the first 8 years.

Actual vs Approved Budget Deficit 2017 to 2024 © Askanwi after MoFEA

Budget Deficit of D7 Billion Recorded So Far

Speaking to Parliamentarians on Friday, 5th December 2025, Minister Keita explained that “because of higher expenditure pressures and underperforming non-tax revenues, the overall deficit, including grants, amounted to D7 billion during the first nine months of 2025.”

This is almost half of the actual budget deficit accumulated from 2017 to 2024, which could increase by the end of 2025.

A closer look indicates that expenditures have only been slightly higher than expected, with the Finance Minister revealing that “total expenditure for the first nine months of 2025 stood at D36.3 billion, representing an execution rate of 103% against the target.” However, total revenues appear to be the challenge, with grants and loans not materialising as expected over the year.

The silver lining comes in the form of domestic revenue collection, which “amounted to D28.8 billion against the target of D22.0 billion.” Although “tax collection exceeded target by 15%” by the end of September 2025, “non-tax revenue underperformed.” This highlights the government’s over-reliance on tax revenue, underscoring the need to diversify non-tax revenue.

To make up for this disparity, Minister Keita told Parliamentarians that “the budget deficit is projected to narrow towards the target due to expected disbursements in budget support.” He added that “grant disbursements are on track. Overall, revenue and grants outturn is anticipated to be on target.” But our research shows this has rarely been the case over the years.

In 2024, D12.2 billion was approved to be collected from grants, but only D3.3 billion was collected. In 2023, D16.3 billion was approved to be collected from grants, but only D4.4 billion was collected. This year D15.7 billion was approved to be collected, but the record highest grants collected was only D4.4 billion in 2023, indicating that the D15.7 billion target may be out of reach this year.

Approved vs Actual Grants Received from 2017 to 2024 © Askanwi after MoFEA

Last year, Parliamentarians approved a budget deficit of D2.6 billion for 2025, but with over D7 billion spent in the first nine months, there will need to be significant revenues raised, coupled with savings from expenditures, to hit the target.

If revenues don’t materialise in the form of grants and expenditure continues to accumulate for the remaining 3 months, the budget deficit of 2025 alone will be more than half of the budget deficit recorded for the last 8 years.

Budget Deficit of D2.1 Projected for 2026

Looking forward, the Finance Minister revealed that “in 2026, the government targets an overall deficit of D2.1 billion (1% of GDP). The lower deficit target than previously envisaged arises from the need to contain domestic borrowing.”